ABS Survey Finds Four in Five Businesses Say AI Has Not Yet Changed Their Job Vacancies

More than four in five Australian businesses say artificial intelligence has had no effect on their job vacancies so far, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ first survey of how the technology is reshaping labour demand, AAP reported on November 4. About 4 per cent of employers said AI had reduced their openings, roughly one in 200 said it had increased them, and many more were unsure.

The effect is uneven across the economy. Media and telecommunications stood out, with 16 per cent of businesses in that sector saying AI had cut vacancies. Wholesalers followed at 8.1 per cent, with manufacturing and retail close behind. At the other end, about 10 per cent of employers in electricity, gas, water and waste services said AI had created more vacancies, the highest share of any sector. Businesses also expect the effect to grow: almost half of the media and telecommunications employers that reported fewer vacancies think there is further to fall.

The government treats job vacancies as an early warning sign of how AI might disrupt the labour market. There were 325,000 open positions in the three months to August, down almost a third from the post-pandemic peak in 2022, although the figures do not show how much of that fall is due to AI. In February, the employment department noted that unemployment had risen sharply in industries more exposed to the technology compared with less exposed ones. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock said on Tuesday that AI could let the economy grow faster if it lifts productivity, but that when that will happen is anyone’s guess.

What it means in practice

Other research points the same way. A Deloitte report found 84 per cent of businesses have not redesigned their work around AI, and the University of Sydney’s Skills Horizon report said in September there was scant evidence of large-scale effects on job markets, with some heavy adopters hiring more entry-level staff. That fits Treasury’s warning that shallow AI uptake risks the productivity gains and adds hard numbers to the debate behind the first workplace best-practice guidance on AI being shaped through ministerial roundtables.

What to watch is whether the ABS repeats the survey so trends can be tracked, whether media and telecommunications vacancies fall as employers expect, and how the data feeds into federal policy on AI and work.